Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

2382

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

November 13 2019

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 31 26 47 39
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 59 42 57 76
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 2 3 3 4
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 3 2 7 11
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 136 81 106 103
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 28 19 31 37
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 7 5 8 5
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 3 3 1 4
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 31 30 34 70
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 29 72 85 67
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 13 16 8 6
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 29 17 23 37
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 55 138 113 75
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 35 42 57 43
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 35 36 42 26
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 17 18 57 37

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 2 0 1 2
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 4 2 4 6
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0 0 0 1
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 5 1 1 0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 1 0 2 1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 1 0 0 0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 1 1 1 5
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 2 7 11 10
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 2 3 1 0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 3 0 0 3
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 1 6 5 3
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 5 4 4 3
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 3 2 1 1
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 7 2

Column 3

Success rates

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.06 0.00 0.02 0.05
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.08
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.09
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.04 0.00 0.06 0.03
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.15
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.15 0.19 0.12 0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.08
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.14 0.10 0.07 0.07
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.09 0.06 0.02 0.04
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.05

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.06
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.08
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.08 0.07
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.06 0.03 0.06 0.05
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.06
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.06
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.11
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.09 0.10 0.08 0.06
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.08 0.03 0.04 0.07
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.07
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.03 0.10 0.06

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.50 0.06 0.11 0.33
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.28 0.11 0.28 0.33
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.26 0.14 0.20 0.39
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.23 0.14 0.37 0.26
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.69 0.11 0.08 0.11
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.32 0.09 0.40 0.19
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.46 0.14 0.17 0.22
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.31 0.17 0.28 0.25
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.26 0.13 0.16 0.46
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.06 0.12 0.42 0.39
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.28 0.41 0.22 0.09
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.52 0.06 0.07 0.35
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.22 0.19 0.27 0.32
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.50 0.23 0.14 0.13
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.50 0.20 0.09 0.21
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.10 0.04 0.73 0.13

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.45 0.10 0.13 0.32
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.27 0.14 0.27 0.32
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.26 0.16 0.21 0.36
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.23 0.16 0.34 0.26
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.60 0.14 0.12 0.14
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.30 0.12 0.37 0.20
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.42 0.16 0.19 0.23
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.30 0.18 0.27 0.25
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.26 0.16 0.17 0.41
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.10 0.15 0.39 0.36
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.27 0.38 0.23 0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.46 0.10 0.11 0.33
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.23 0.20 0.26 0.30
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.45 0.23 0.16 0.15
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.45 0.21 0.12 0.22
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.13 0.08 0.64 0.15

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp (0.03, 0.12) (0.00, 0.07) (0.01, 0.08) (0.02, 0.10)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp (0.03, 0.11) (0.02, 0.10) (0.03, 0.12) (0.04, 0.11)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp (0.02, 0.13) (0.00, 0.13) (0.01, 0.14) (0.03, 0.16)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.13) (0.00, 0.13) (0.02, 0.18) (0.02, 0.13)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.08) (0.00, 0.05) (0.00, 0.05) (0.00, 0.05)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.11) (0.00, 0.08) (0.02, 0.12) (0.02, 0.09)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.15) (0.00, 0.12) (0.01, 0.12) (0.01, 0.12)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.13) (0.00, 0.13) (0.01, 0.15) (0.01, 0.12)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.10) (0.01, 0.09) (0.01, 0.10) (0.04, 0.11)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp (0.03, 0.12) (0.04, 0.13) (0.07, 0.17) (0.06, 0.17)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp (0.04, 0.16) (0.04, 0.20) (0.02, 0.17) (0.01, 0.12)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.04, 0.14) (0.00, 0.09) (0.00, 0.09) (0.03, 0.12)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp (0.01, 0.08) (0.02, 0.07) (0.02, 0.08) (0.02, 0.09)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp (0.05, 0.16) (0.03, 0.14) (0.03, 0.12) (0.03, 0.11)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.13) (0.02, 0.11) (0.01, 0.09) (0.02, 0.10)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.10) (0.00, 0.08) (0.05, 0.16) (0.02, 0.11)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.013, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.003. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.01, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.02, 0.03) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.02, 0.03) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date